Gameweek 4 Team Selection : Whom to buy, keep, sell and avoid ?

August 28, 2023 | Diwas Lamichhane 6.2K Reads

Diwas Lamichhane

Love playing cricket and analysing things related to cricket and football

Diwas Lamichhane

Love playing cricket and analysing things related to cricket and football

If you had a bad gameweek, do not worry because here I am with you for transfer suggestions for your team in gameweek 4. I’m expecting the gameweek to be a very high scoring one in terms of fantasy with so many nice fixtures.

Before starting the article, let me remind you that the price of players can rise and fall according to the heavy transferring in or out by 0.1m each day. However, the price cannot rise above the level of 0.3m in a single gameweek. This price change can only take place between 7:00 - 8:30 AM Nepali time(GMT +5:45).

So, let's start with our BUY - KEEP - SELL - AVOID article.

Buy

Nicolas Jackson - CHE - FWD - 7.1m

With the easier fixtures coming up for Chelsea, we can expect the striker to score more and get more scoring opportunities. Jackson has Expected Goal Involvements (xGI) of 2.3 over the last 3 GW including expected Goals (xG) of 2 and expected assists (xA) of 0.2.

n spite of having enough big chances, the striker couldn’t convert into goals in his first two rounds of fixtures with fantasy points 1 in each. However, he provided a goal in GW3 vs Luton Town with an assist from Raheem Sterling.

With these nice fixtures, the Chelsea striker is expected to be truly nailed on.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
NFO (H) BOU(A) AVL(H) FUL(A) BUR(A)

Malo Gusto - CHE - DEF - 4.1m

Another Chelsea player, this time a defender, Gusto at 4.1m is a bargain with Reece James still injured and expected to be returning back to starting after the international break from September 4 to September 12. He has been guaranteed a spot of starting XI after right fullback Reece James picked up a hamstring injury.

Gusto provided 2 assists in GW3 vs Luton Town with a clean sheet and 2 bonus points with a total of 14 points. With these fixtures next, this attacking right fulback is a bargain at 4.1m. Even for long term, you can keep him as 4m is a perfect bench option too if James, who is a very injury prone player is set to comeback to playing ways.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
NFO (H) BOU(A) AVL(H) FUL(A) BUR(A)

Destiny Udogie - TOT - DEF - 4.6m

If you’re looking for a cheap attacking defender from Tottenham Hotspur, go for Udogie. He is so good, so attacking and he is likely to get much more of those attacking returns among all of other Spurs defenders.

Udogie delivered a 12 pointer in the recent GW3 where he provided an assist with 3 bonus points. He has expected goal involvements (xGI) of 0.6 which is very good for a 4.5m (currently 4.6 m) defender whose fixtures are nice over the next gameweeks too. His projected points are 18.8 from GW4-9.

With only arsenal and liverpool in gameweek 6 and 7 being a tricky fixture and many nice fixtures after that, the 4.6m fullback has many things to offer you in your fantasy team.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
BUR (A) SHU(H) ARS(A) LIV(H) LUT(A)

Keep

James Maddison - TOT - MID - 7.6m

Maddison is so involved in a lot of the set pieces and he gets the chances to score and has scored in GW3 despite the injury rumours. There is a bit of possibility that Spurs drop Richarlison seeing his performance in this gameweek which I think will be good for him.

Looking at the fixtures, there are some tricky fixtures with Arsenal away and Liverpool home in gameweeks 6 and 7 but after that the run of fixtures look really nice for Spurs.

To add up, there is no Champions League for Spurs so that rotation risk is minimal for Maddison. Many managers have been seen keeping him on bench due to injury news in GW3 where he scored and proved to be starting. 

There’s also a reminder that Maddison had a fantastic season (19 returns) for a team that got relegated last season. His projected points are 32.0 over the next 5 gameweeks. He’s the 2nd highest for non-penalty xGI and 3rd highest in xA this season. Therefore, James Maddison is definitely a keep for now.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
BUR (A) SHU(H) ARS(A) LIV(H) LUT(A)

Bryan Mbeumo - BRE - MID - 6.6m

While Ivan Toney has been banned for eight months for breaching betting rules, Mbeumo has been on the penalties and moving into the talismanic role for the Brentford. A talismanic player refers to the one who has the ability to make a difference in a game through their exceptional skills and leadership.

Mbeumo is nailed to start all the gameweeks unless injury concerns arrive. He’s been linking up well with the Brentford striker Wissa. With a great run of fixtures coming up and his expected returns per 90 minutes turning up to be 0.70 this season, he’s definitely a keep.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
BOU (H) NEW (A) EVE (H) NFO (A) MUN (A)

Bruno Fernandes - MUN - MID - 8.5m

Most of the managers might have decided to sell united assets before the gw3 deadline due to their lack of attacking returns. Bruno was involved with a goal in penalty and an assist in gw3 vs Nottingham Forest where they were under the lead of 2-0 inside 4 minutes of play which helped United win by the scoreline of 3-2 in the end. 

The next fixture of United is with Arsenal which might give managers a tuff work to do for either keeping or selling Bruno. Hold on! I have a mind-blowing stats to provide you and reasons to NOT sell Bruno Fernandes:

  • He has the most big chances created by any of the players in the premier league in the 2023/24 season until now.
  • He had a xG of 1.21 and xA 0.54 against Nottingham Forest in gameweek 3.
  • He has an expected goal involvement (xGI) of 3.7 over the last three gameweeks.
  • He is on many set pieces for United including corners, penalties and freekicks.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
ARS (A) BHA (H) BUR (A) CRY (H) BRE (H)

 


 

SELL

Gabriel Martinelli - ARS - MID - 8.0m

As you know, Bukayo Saka is on penalties and his data is better than Martinelli. In addition, he has become a little bit more of a minutes risk now since Gabriel Jesus has returned to the Arsenal lineup.

You might counter that Jesus and Martinelli don't even play in the same position. That is why it doesn't directly impact his minutes. However, Nketiah and Trossard both are now unlikely to start whereas one of them has always been starting this season. 

This means when Trossard comes off the bench, he’s very much likely to come in place of Martinelli with Nketiah coming on in place of Jesus. He might play 70 minutes but the thing is he hasn't performed that well so far this season and can be risky. They have a Champions League after GW5 that can add up some additional rotation too.

Although he has an okay expected goal involvement (xGI) of 1 with 0.7 xG and 0.4 xA, his run of fixtures aren’t that great. He’s on the corner but there are other midfield options like Fernandes and Maddison of similar price that are delivering more benefits to the managers.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
MUN (H) EVE (A) TOT (H) BOU (A) MCI (H)

Gabriel Magalhaes - ARS - DEF - 4.9m

At the start of the season, Gabriel was benched for the first time in his last 73 appearances for Arsenal in the premier league. After that, he has been a major rotation headache for the managers. This is due to the tactical changes in Arteta's formation where new signing Timber was replaced ahead of Gabriel where he sustained a long term injury.

The managers still expected Gabriel to start after Timber got injured, but Arteta thought of it the other way. Tomiyasu was brought into the starting XI in GW2 where he was booked a red card which again gave managers a hope for Gabriel starting in GW3. Surprisingly, Kiwior was brought into the left centre back position by which it now became a serious issue about Gabriel owners.

Therefore, it is too much of holding for Gabriel and now is the time of getting rid of him.

Trent Alexander Arnold - LIV - DEF - 7.9m

Looking through TAA’s performances, he makes a lot of defensive blunders which again cost Liverpool a 1-0 lead early against Newcastle in GW3. He had been priced so much for his attacking returns which doesn't seem worthy until now.

He’s not a rotation risk but Liverpool are struggling defensively and Arnold isn't proving to be worthy of his price tag in fantasy. 

So, it's time that we get rid of him in case we have him in our fantasy team.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
AVL (H) WOL (A) WHU (H) TOT (A) BHA (A)

 


 

AVOID

Darwin Nunez - LIV - FWD - 7.3m

I know this is quite a controversial one but Darwin Nunez is a potential avoid in spite of scoring winning 2 goals while liverpool were 1-0 down until 80 minutes of play vs Newcastle in GW3.

The reason for having him as an avoid is his rotation risk. Ha has only played 41 minutes total in the last 3 gameweeks with Gakpo and Jota being other forward options. He plays Wolves in GW5 which is only a single easy fixture in the next 5 game weeks with West Ham being good defensively this season. So, for now, I think Darwin Nunez is not worth a risk for.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
AVL (H) WOL (A) WHU (H) TOT (A) BHA (A)

Jose Sa - WOL - GKP - 5.0m

The reason for Jose Sa being in avoid option is the 11 pointer he delivered in the recent gameweek is because of lack of proper finishing from Everton.

Wolves are conceding a lot with an expected goals conceded of 4.9 this season and transferring in Jose Sa with considering only one gameweek is not a wise choice.

I’m not fond of making goalkeeper transfers since they’re not giving attacking returns and is just a matter of clean sheet and save points. Unless you play a wildcard, I’m not suggesting you to make any goalkeeper transfers.

Next 5 Gameweeks

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
CRY (A) LIV (H) LUT (A) MCI (H) AVL (H)

Brighton Assets

As we know, the Brighton players like Estupinan, Mitoma and March have been nailed on this season with Estupinan giving enough attacking returns, Mitoma spectacular with his ‘dancing feet’ in the pitch and March with his goal involvements.

However, with the tough run of fixtures coming up next, buying them will be risky. If you have Brighton assets you can keep them or bench if you have a suitable replacement option, but hold on if you’re eyeing on transferring them in.

Moving on, they had a terrible gameweek 3 in which they lost to West Ham 3-1. Brighton are going to be in Europe as well this season. That adds up to the realisation that transferring in the Brighton assets is too risky.

Next 5 Gameweeks

 

GW4 GW5 GW6 GW7 GW8
NEW (H) MUN (A) BOU (H) AVL (A) LIV (H)

Christian Romero - TOT - DEF - 4.6m

Romero is a centre back playing for Spurs who had scored a header in the first gameweek vs Brentford. He had 0 goals and 2 assists last season. He is a centre back and doesn't go too forward unless a corner is taken.

While we have much better option Udogie to go for at the similar price and who has more attacking returns that Romero, Christian Romero is surely an avoid.

 


 

SUGGESTED TRANSFERS

Transfer In Transfer Out
Sterling / Maddison Martinelli
Udogie / Gusto / Henry Gabriel
Chilwell TAA / Shaw
Alvarez Pedro

BUY

Jackson
Gusto
Udogie
Sterling
Alvarez
Gvardiol

KEEP

Fernandes
Maddison
Chilwell
Eze
Mbeumo
Cash

SELL

Martinelli
TAA
Gabriel
Pedro
Shaw
Van Dijk

AVOID

Rodri
Casemiro
Nunez
Jose Sa
Romero
Brighton Assets

The opinions presented here are the views of the writer and do not necessarily relfect the opinions of SportsGuff.